The 2019 pandemic brought countless setbacks over the span of two years. Hollywood award seasons were no exception to that.
We have had seen multiple awards shows such as the Grammys, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Producers Guild Awards, among many others get postponed and delayed which has been a disappointment for many watchers out there. Now as a result of delay in last year’s Oscars, this year’s eligibility period will be the shortest in history, running from March 1 through December 31, 2021. Regardless of all that, the show must go on! If all goes well, the 2022 Oscar Awards will be held at March 27 and fans are thrilled to watch their favorites be victorious in the 94th Oscars.
Having our nominees sorted will be quite helpful in predicting the winners so obviously, we would have to do some calculations as to who will be nominated in the next Oscars. If you are like us and a fan of this extravagant Hollywood award ceremony then you are in for a treat.
Let us just take a look at some of the possible nominations of this year and what does our math say about who is going to be the winner in each category. A flurry of other cinematic prizes, including reviewer circles, guild awards, and the BAFTAs, have revealed their predictions for the nominations and winners which helped to make our predictions a piece of cake! We will be looking at 8 major categories of the entire award show and look at the potential nominees and winners in their respective one.
Best Actor in a Leading Role Award
Will Smith (“King Richard”) is a near lock for his third best actor nomination, and owing to his Golden Globe, he may be on his way to winning his first Academy Award. But not if a handful of his main rivals are involved. Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”), Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick… Boom!”) and Denzel Washington (“Macbeth: The Tragedy”) appear to be among Smith‘s competitors for the part.
Is there a contest for fifth place? The most likely nominees are Nicholas Cage (“Pig”), Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”), and Peter Dinklage (“Cyrano”), but the math shows the last nomination is a toss-up. SAG and Golden Globe nominations went to Bardem, while Cage received considerably more nominations from other groups earlier in the season.
Best Director Award
For her fascinating work on “The Power of the Dog”, Jane Campion is a near-lock to become the first female filmmaker to receive multiple best director nominations. Following that, the analysis shows Steven Spielberg‘s “West Side Story”, Paul Thomas Anderson‘s “Licorice Pizza”, Kenneth Branagh‘s “Belfast”, and Denis Villeneuve‘s “Dune” to be the rest of the four directors following Campion.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role Award
Kodi Smit-McPhee‘s role in “The Power of the Dog” speaks for itself. Besides, a slew of reviewers has spoken enough by awarding him the most awards of anyone this season so that one is a tough one to beat for all the other potential nominees.
Unlike the other three acting categories, there is far less agreement among the main groupings this year about who the top four or five are. Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) looks to be in second position, but no one else has a score of 75 percent, making this the acting category with the most potential for shocks. Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”) garnered a BAFTA and Critics Choice nomination, while Ben Affleck (“The Tender Bar”) received a SAG nomination, and both were nominated for Golden Globes.
Best Actress Award
Ariana DeBose has swept the awards season thus far, winning a Golden Globe for her performance in “West Side Story”, and this might be hers to lose. Caitriona Balfe (“Belfast”), Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”), and Ruth Negga (“Passing”) are all SAG nominees who are expected to attend the Oscars with DeBose, but they can’t purchase tickets just yet.
On the last option, the model deviates from the Screen Actors Guild, choosing Aunjanue Ellis from “King Richard” above Ann Dowd from “Mass” or Cate Blanchett from “Nightmare Alley”.
Best Original Screenplay Award
“Belfast”, “Being the Ricardos”, “Licorice Pizza”, and “Don’t Look Up” are all in a tight race for first place, with “King Richard” likely to finish third.
The Writer’s Guild is often cited as a reliable source of information, but this year, both “Belfast” in the original category and “The Power of the Dog” in the adapted category are ineligible, and while the model accounts for this, it will make determining the correct percentages in the screenplay competitions more difficult than usual.
Best Adapted Screenplay Award
“The Power of the Dog” might have a spectacular night at the Oscars this March. Jane Campion‘s film takes first prize in four of the eight categories which are picture, director, supporting actor, and adapted script, as well as second and third place in the actor and supporting actress categories. Talk about an all-rounder.
In other case look to “Dune”, “The Lost Daughter”, or “CODA” if “The Power of the Dog” is to be dethroned as best adapted screenplay. “West Side Story”, a Writers Guild Award nominee, and “Drive My Car”, a BAFTA Award candidate, are tied for fifth place.
Best Picture Award
The best picture award is the most important award of the night. We’ll have precisely 10 candidates for the first time since 2010, according to an Academy rule adjustment. “The Power of the Dog”, “Belfast”, “Dune”, “Licorice Pizza”, and “West Side Story”, a quartet of films at the top, surely don’t require that extra layer of protection. To be considered for the top category, everyone must have a score of 97.5 percent.
However, all of the films below are relieved that there aren’t more than eight or nine nominations on the way. “Don’t Look Up”, “King Richard”, and “CODA” are all likely to be in. “Tick, Tick… Boom!” and “Nightmare Alley” are the next two, and if there isn’t a single upset, those two will finish the field. Yet, there’s a good possibility that won’t happen.
At least one film from outside the top 10 is almost certain to make the cut. Unfortunately, the computer responds with a shrug of 0s and 1s when asked which film it is. No less than ten films, ranging from “Being the Ricardos” to “The Tragedy of Macbeth”, have a 9 percent to 21% chance of being nominated, and they’re all rather worried right now.
